What is revolutionary situation?
In the writings of Lenin and Trotsky, we can find the definition of what is a revolutionary situation. In his book "The failure of the Second International" (1916) Lenin explained:
“What, generally speaking, are the symptoms of a revolutionary situation? We shall certainly not be mistaken if we indicate the following three major symptoms: (1) when it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the “upper classes”, a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the oppressed classes burst forth. For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for “the lower classes not to want” to live in the old way; it is also necessary that “the upper classes should be unable” to live in the old way; (2) when the suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in “peace time”, but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the “upper classes” themselves into independent historical action.“.....The totality of all these objective changes is called a revolutionary situation. Such a situation existed in 1905 in Russia, and in all revolutionary periods in the West;...”
Trotsky in 1940, in the Emergency Manifesto explained the necessary conditions for the victory of the proletariat:
“The basic conditions for the victory of the proletarian revolution have been established by historical experience and clarified theoretically: (1) the bourgeois impasse and the resulting confusion of the ruling class; (2) the sharp dissatisfaction and the striving towards decisive changes in the ranks of the petty bourgeoisie, without whose support the big bourgeoisie cannot maintain itself; (3) the consciousness of the intolerable situation and readiness for revolutionary actions in the ranks of the proletariat; (4) a clear program and a firm leadership of the proletarian vanguard—these are the four conditions for the victory of the proletarian revolution.” (Manifesto of the Fourth International on Imperialist War and the Imperialist War).
All these elements have developed in Greece today. The ruling class begins to understand that they cannot govern as before; to lie and deceive the masses, i.e. with the old, gentle, "democratic" means. The suffering and indignation of the masses have been growing over a long period. The masses have already begun to move independently of the ruling class.
The ruling class finds itself in a state of unprecedented confusion because of the impasse. They are absolutely unable to reach to a unified strategy. Some say: “we must completely capitulate to the foreign lenders and see where we can go from there". Others suggest that Greece should "renegotiate with the troika”, while still others say we must "get out of the euro now in order to strengthen the country's competitiveness." Some say: "let’s form a national government", while others urge Papandreou to continue carrying out the dirty work until he gets the boot. Some, are even secretly studying the possibility of a coup, in an attempt to put the brake on the movement of the masses. This scenario was outlined in a leaked report by the CIA in the bourgeois press last week.